U.S. Election Developments and Their Implications for Transatlantic Relations.
The road to the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election has certainly been laden with curves, both politically left and right. We are witnessing one of the most unprecedented presidential campaigns in modern election history. This journey has provided an opportunity to delve into the current state of the campaign stretch and consider its implications for the transatlantic partnership.
Alongside distinguished experts from the U.S., we shed light on what a Harris or Trump administration might mean from a dual perspective: both looking back at past policy decisions and their impact on the international order, domestic policy, and economic trends, and looking ahead to how each administration could shape the future in these areas, with the goal to offer a balanced and fact-based perspective that cuts through the noise of partisan discourse.
During the discussion with former U.S. Ambassador to Germany, John B. Emerson, and Senior Fellow to Johns Hopkins University’s SAIS Foreign Policy Institute, Dr. Daniel Hamilton, that I moderated and co-hosted, it quickly became clear that this election is shaping up to be razor-thin. Governor Philip D. Murphy’s insights reinforced this conclusion. However, the focus isn’t just on the future president; the national landscape and the outcomes of down-ballot races will have an important impact as well.
With the visit of U.S. congressional staffers to Munich, I also had the opportunity to moderate and explore transatlantic economic and energy policy perspectives, diving deep into the workings of U.S. politics.
All experts and representatives from both the House and the Senate share the view that:
The EU should prepare regardless of the outcome of the Presidential election as European’s security policy, Ukraine, and U.S. foreign policy on China and the Middle East will fundamentally alter the course of direction for the U.S. and therefore the transatlantic relationship.
Insights Directly from the Experts:
A Series of Consequential turn-of-events:
Faced with a flailing public approval rating, grappling with the discussion about senility, alongside a growing number of key party allies calling for him to end his re-election bid, current President Joe Biden found himself in a consequential dilemma. His disappointing final debate performance ultimately led to his dropping out of the race.
At the same time, the assassination attempts against Former President Trump added chaos and raised new questions, intensifying the atmosphere of uncertainty and being used strategically to bolster his campaign and undermine the opposition.
These unexpected events suddenly and dramatically altered the course of the 2024 campaign for both parties. What once pointed to a likely Trump victory has, over the course of the campaign, turned into yet another razor-thin election. As we approach November 5, it’s essential to remain vigilant for unexpected developments - black swan events - that could impact the election.
Down-Ballot races:
The democratic party's surge as a result of the energy from the Harris-Walz campaign could mean the Senate races follow suit; however, this is still not a linear relationship.
Joe Manchin: US Senator of West Virginia (formerly a very moderate Democrat) has left the party and is now an Independent, meaning his seat will likely be lost to a Republican competitor as he comes from a Republican dominated state.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Kentucky) succession race will determine who becomes the next leader of the Republican’s in the Senate. Several people are interested in the job - the top three candidates are all white men named John: Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.), former whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) and GOP Conference Chair John Barrasso (R-Wyo.).
Battleground States and the US Electoral College:
The U.S., unlike most EU countries, is not a parliamentary system - meaning that there are, in a nutshell, 50+ separate elections occurring simultaneously based on who wins the popular vote in these states/districts which in turn will win the delegates of each U.S. state. Each state has its own number of delegates based on its population (adjusted every 10 years with the Census).
The 2024 Election will likely be determined by approx. 6-7 essential battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada in 2024 (all with extremely close polls within <1 to 2 percentage point leads for either candidate).
Voter turnout will have an enormous impact on the outcomes of these battleground states.
Georgia early-voting stats have shown record turnout with over 320,000 ballots, more than doubling the 2020 record of ~136,000. Polls in the swing state highlight the close race with the candidates as they vie for the state’s 16 electoral votes.
Maine and Nebraska are unique states in the U.S. Electoral College system based on their method of splitting electoral votes. While other states use a “winner-takes-all” approach to electoral votes, Maine and Nebraska split delegate districts and can have electoral votes for both presidential candidates. Maine with its four electoral votes delegates two for the statewide winner and two votes decided by the winner in its two congressional districts. Nebraska similarly splits its five electoral votes between two for the statewide winning candidate and the remaining votes based on the three congressional district winners.
What the EU should do to prepare in the event of a return of Trump to the White House or for a Harris victory:
In the event of a return of Trump, his foreign policy, particularly in Europe would most likely continue to antagonize EU integration by allying with far-right European nationalists, which according to Dr. Daniel Hamilton would “not only lead Europe to likely no longer trust the U.S., but could, in fact, turn against other European countries leading to a ‘crumbling Europe’ scenario rather than bolstering a strong and unified Europe.”
In the event of a Harris victory, we may see a continuation of Biden’s foreign policy and perspective on the transatlantic relationship, or possibly a new direction. Europe must continue to prepare for these outcomes in the coming months.
The EU should prepare regardless of who wins the election as the issues of China and the Middle-East will likely reshape the Transatlantic Relationship as US foreign policy will need to address growing geopolitical tensions and economic competition in these regions.
The full webinar: From Convetion Season to the Final Campaign Stretch with John B. Emerson & Daniel Hamilton.
My big thanks goes to all my partners for a great collaboration.
